The anticipated move would see the Base Rate rise from 3.75% to 4%, marking a change in direction after a series of reductions between August 2024 and December 2025.
But what is behind the expected increase, and what could it mean for homeowners, prospective buyers and sellers across North Hampshire, Surrey and Berkshire?
Why are interest rates expected to rise?
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is responsible for setting interest rates, with its primary aim being to keep inflation under control and close to its 2% target.
However, inflation has been proving more persistent than hoped, reaching 3.5% in September 2026. Rising global energy costs, partly driven by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, have added to inflationary pressures, increasing the cost of fuel and energy for households and businesses.
There are also concerns that higher energy and business costs could feed through into the wider economy, resulting in further price rises.
An increase in interest rates is one of the Bank’s main tools for tackling inflation. By making borrowing more expensive, it aims to moderate spending and demand, helping to bring price rises under control.
However, the decision is not straightforward. Higher borrowing costs can also put pressure on households and businesses, potentially slowing economic growth.
What could this mean for mortgage rates?
An increase in the Bank of England Base Rate can influence mortgage costs, although the relationship is not always immediate or directly proportional.
Those with tracker mortgages, which typically follow the Bank Rate, could see their monthly repayments increase following a rise. Homeowners on standard variable rates may also be affected, depending on their lender’s decision.
For those with fixed-rate mortgages, there is no immediate change to their agreed monthly repayments. However, anyone approaching the end of a fixed-rate deal will need to consider the mortgage products available when they come to re-mortgage.
It is also worth remembering that fixed mortgage rates are influenced by wider financial market conditions, including swap rates, rather than simply following the Bank of England’s Base Rate. Indeed, some lenders have already been adjusting their mortgage rates in response to changing market expectations.
For prospective buyers, mortgage affordability remains an important consideration. It is sensible to review available mortgage options, understand the monthly repayments involved and speak to a mortgage adviser before making a commitment.
Will this affect buyer and seller confidence?
Interest rates are undoubtedly an important part of the property market, influencing affordability and the decisions people make about moving home.
However, they are just one consideration. Employment, household circumstances, available property, location and individual financial situations all play their part.
Buyers who are already in a position to move are likely to continue with their plans, particularly if they have found a property that meets their requirements. For others, a potential increase in borrowing costs may just encourage some to take a little more time to review their finances.
For sellers, it is important to remember that people move for many different reasons, and the need to buy or sell does not necessarily disappear when interest rates change. A well-presented property, priced realistically for the current market and supported by effective marketing, can still attract serious interest from buyers.
Across North Hampshire, Surrey and Berkshire, we continue to see the importance of understanding local market conditions and how individual properties compare with others available to buyers.
What should homeowners and prospective movers do?
With the Bank of England’s latest decision due, anyone considering a move may understandably be wondering whether to proceed or wait for greater certainty.
Our advice is to focus on your own circumstances and plans rather than making decisions based solely on predictions about future interest rates.
If you are thinking about buying, reviewing your mortgage options and understanding what you can comfortably afford is a sensible starting point. If you are already a homeowner, it may be worth looking ahead to when your current mortgage deal ends and exploring the options available.
For those considering selling, an accurate understanding of your property’s current market value is equally important. Knowing what your home could achieve, and what you could potentially buy next, can help you make an informed decision about your plans.
The Bank of England’s decision will be an important development, but the longer-term direction of interest rates will depend on how inflation, energy costs and the wider economy evolve over the coming months.
For buyers and sellers, having reliable information and professional advice remains particularly valuable when making an important financial decision.
Thinking of moving home? Contact your local Mackenzie Smith office to arrange a free, no-obligation property valuation and find out more about the current market in your area.
Do you need mortgage advice? We’ll be happy to refer you to a local mortgage advisor who has the resources to find you the best mortgage deal to fit your circumstances.
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